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Untucked Episode 99

Untucked Episode 99 – Investing at all time highs

Listen to the team discuss investing at all time high’s here or the full episode here.

Meghan Tait: [00:00:00] All right. Um, so today for Coach’s Corner, we are going to Um, refer to an article written by Ben Carlson called What if you only invested at market peaks? A common question we get from clients is when is the best time to invest? When things are going well and markets are hitting all time highs, there’s often apprehension of putting money into the market because of the possibility it goes down, um, shortly thereafter.

There’s been a lot of work done to support the fact that investing when they have the money regardless of market environments is the best time to do so. But as humans, our emotions don’t always adhere to those facts.

Jeff Mastronardo: Yeah, I think that we have just been hearing this a lot lately, talking to clients, talking to prospective clients about like investing money if they have money and they’re just super, everyone seems to be apprehensive about why would I do it now?

Like it’s at an all time high and it just seems like such a goofy comment or, or thing for them to say [00:01:00] when dollar cost averaging is not. the preferred method, like from a mathematical standpoint from a history standpoint. Now you might get lucky, but like if you have money, 100, 000 that you want to invest nine times out of 10 is not in your favor to dollar cost average 10 grand in over the next 10 months.

You’re better off investing it right away. All of it because we know the longer your money’s invested. the better chance it has to do. And people just don’t wrap their brain around that for some reason. And this is the same thing. It’s like, if I have money and I, and I have a long term perspective, it doesn’t matter where the market is right now.

Because if I’m investing for the next 10, 15, 20, 30 years, you’re better off investing now. So it doesn’t matter where it is, unless. [00:02:00] There’s like a, like a, um, a short timeframe for when that money’s needed.

Meghan Tait: Right.

Jeff Mastronardo: And that’s what I don’t think people get. Like, if you have the 100, 000 or 10, 000, is that earmarked for something?

No, it’s earmarked for my retirement. Well, then it should go in right now. I don’t care if the S& P is at 5, 200 because 10 years from now it’s going to be higher than that. 15 years is gonna be higher than that. 20 years is gonna be higher than that. I mean, the number that he references in his article, let me find it.

Like it’s just wild. And it’s the one that really stuck with me on this chart. Like, cause I can remember very vividly. I can’t remember 1987. I wasn’t investing in 1987, but I can certainly remember March of 2000. And I can certainly remember October of 2007. And if you invested in March of 2000, you immediately lost 50 percent [00:03:00] of your money.

But now 20 years later, your money’s 220 percent more like, that’s just crazy. Like I bet nobody would believe that.

Meghan Tait: Assuming you stayed invested over that whole time. Assuming you stayed

Jeff Mastronardo: invested and didn’t freak out over that 20 year period. Yeah. 23 year period at any point, right. Cause then all, all bets are off.

But even 07, like if you invested in October of 07, you immediately lost 57%. That’s crazy. But 10 years later you have 105 percent more money than you did when you started.

Meghan Tait: And that’s, that’s the concern people have, right? When they, when they are making these decisions is that at all time highs immediately there becomes right.

A new, data point on this chart. Um, and that’s kind of the emotional obstacle you have to get around, which is what you’re describing. The reality [00:04:00] of the time frame in front of you is going to benefit you more by getting the money invested. But looking at this data, there’s going to be a lot of people who say, well, I’d rather have less on the, you know, at the long, at the end of that than see my money cut in half immediately.

Jeff Mastronardo: Yeah, and I think my comment about dollar cost averaging is probably got a lot of people saying like I’m wrong and I’m an idiot, but Most Time frames the market is up If you just happen to decide not to dollar cost average in one of those rare instances When the market goes down Yes, you would have been better off dollar cost average, but most times you won’t be.

You will be better off getting it invested now. And like, don’t even look at who cares if you don’t need it right now, you don’t need a five years from now. You don’t need a 10 years now. Then don’t even look at it and don’t even try to go back and calculate which scenario would have made you [00:05:00] better off.

Mike Traynor: Yeah. So, um, the recent one that that’s kind of. Within memory for a lot of people is that is the two thousands, right? So you had the, the internet and tech thing, which kind of peaked in March of 2000. And then there was a subsequent basically cut in half. Um, I’m talking about the S and P 500 in this case.

And then remember, so 2000 and 2001, 2002 were all down years. Um, and then if you held on, You clawed your way back, but then you had to deal with 2007 and 2008, which was another, you know, 50 plus percent decline. So by the time you get to 2010, that decade, you’re not even, you’re barely underwater, but you’re, you’re, you’re not quite back to where you started.

So like incredibly painful 10 years, it’s all said and done. And by the way, one, that’s an [00:06:00] example of, of what would happen over 10 years, maybe five out of a hundred times. I mean, they coined it like the lost decade. But if you have more than 10 years to work with at that time, let’s say you had 20 years, the numbers right here, you would have made 219 percent on your money when that next decade was said and done.

So the point about like if you have any time frame at all to work with, you shouldn’t care at all about. The level of the market and on the flip side, you know, we know people that, you know, the S and P got back to an all time high in 2013 or 14. I want to say recovering from the financial crisis and all that.

Well, it’s at an all time high and people are saying, well, it’s an all time high. I’m going to wait for it to pull back. Wait for it to pull back. Well, what’s happened from that point in time, 2014 ish. Where was it? Where was the S and P was at like [00:07:00] 2, 100 or something like that. It’s more than way more than doubled since then way more.

So it’s more than it’s psychological, but it’s also like, I think a lot of times we hear people say, well. It’s at an all time high, we’re just going to wait until it like pulls back a bit and then we’ll get it. Well, in that case, you never got in. Right. Ever. Or, yeah, you sat there for nine years, ten years, and you’re still sitting there with what you had in cash.

Yeah, and I And you will never get those returns back.

Meghan Tait: And I also challenge that because of the emotional element of it, meaning We’re going to wait till things pull back. Oh, and then we’re going to be able to convince you to get in. Right. When, when shit starts to hit the fan and there’s a, there’s some other thing, a pandemic, something, uh, an election year, whatever it is, something else that we’re dealing with in the markets or in the country or in the economy.

And at that point, [00:08:00] you’re going to say, Oh, now’s a good time. I mean, it just, it, we don’t work like that. Humans don’t operate that way. And the people who are saying, yes, that’s exactly when I would do it. The. Okay, one out of a hundred, maybe end up pulling that trigger.

Jeff Mastronardo: Yeah.

Meghan Tait: But the environment becomes scarier and you’re then going to deploy your money.

It’s just way less likely.

Mike Traynor: It’s like, I mean, maybe this is a bad analogy, but it would be like if you’re, if you’re buying a house and real estate prices are at an all time high, which they often are, I mean, you kind of don’t say. I’m assuming you can afford the house, right? You don’t, you don’t say, well, I’m going to wait for a little pullback here.

Right. You know why? Because you kind of know that over time, the price of your house is going to be higher than it is. What then now, even if the, even if it’s an all time high price, right? Maybe

Jeff Mastronardo: not a year later, but when you go to sell it 10, 15 years from [00:09:00] now or longer, it’s going to be worth more. Yeah.

Yeah. Just like investments Yeah, so if it’s not if you don’t need if you’re not buying your house now with the intent to sell it six or month six months or a year later But yeah, you’re gonna make it’s going to be worth more. I don’t want to say you’re gonna make money on right? All right more and and I’m obviously like if if the decisions are Put it all in now.

I don’t want to do that dollar cost average or never invest it Yeah, obviously dollar cost if that makes you feel better You If that will get you in the market over some time frame, absolutely do that, but certainly do not sit on the sidelines and wait until you think there’s a pullback happening.

Mike Traynor: Yeah, and, and the math behind the dollar cost averaging is pretty simple.

It’s basically if you’re buying something, if you’re buying in every month, let’s say six out of 10 months, the markets are up and I’m making that up, but it’s kind of close to that. Um, so. By that logic [00:10:00] You’re going to be paying higher prices Six out of ten times and not four out of ten times.

Jeff Mastronardo: It makes perfect sense, man, and I didn’t it I didn’t even Understand that until I was going through the cfp curriculum and they’re like, yep Dollar cost averaging is not more favorable in most cases than just investing and i’m like What are you talking about?

Like dollar we’ve been told We’ve been told All of our lives, a dollar cost averaging is the way, but it’s so simple. Like when you think about if the market’s up 13 percent this year and you’re going to invest 12, 000 in the market that year, you’re better off putting all 12 grand in, in January to get the full 13 percent return versus doing 1, 000 a month.

I was blown away, like, like totally opened my eyes. I was blown away by it.

Meghan Tait: I think your point’s a good one though. And we can probably end there that like. If it means doing nothing, then dollar cost averaging is, is, is good and, and serviceable. But if you’re debating [00:11:00] between the advantages or disadvantages of kind of a lump sum investing in an all time high market, do it.

Just get in. Yep. Yep.

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Untucked Episode 96

Untucked Episode 96

Click here to listen to our Coach’s Corner discussion about parents financially supporting their adult children.

Click here to listen to our entire episode which can also be found on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Google Play. 

Meghan Tait: [00:00:00] Um, today we’re gonna talk about an article recently, um, featured in the Wall Street Journal, written by Julia Carpenter. The article is called Well Into Adulthood and Still Getting Money from their Parents. Um, I took this like summary right from the article. Parental support is continuing later in life because younger people now take longer to reach many adult milestones, and getting there is more expensive than it has.

Been for past generations, economists and researchers have said, so. Julia’s article explores parents helping their adult children financially, and that’s what we’ll spend some time on today.

Jeff Mastronardo: What do we consider adult children? What age? 1823. 23,

Mike Traynor: I think. Well, I was gonna say 21 or 22

Jeff Mastronardo: plus. Yeah.

Meghan Tait: Okay. Like I, I view, at least I view the way that this article framed it as adult working children.

Jeff Mastronardo: Yeah. Working or trying to find work. Or trying

Meghan Tait: to find work. Yes. So early twenties. Okay. [00:01:00] And the article focused on what they referred to as adult milestones, having their own children buying their own homes, um, supporting their own kind of month-to-month needs, or not being able to do so with the income that they were making.

Jeff Mastronardo: So what do we kind of see? We, we see all the above, right? Like we see parents that help their adult children on a monthly basis with a stipend, and I mean, adult children, like in their forties Mm-Hmm mm-Hmm. Like twenties through forties. mm-Hmm. We see clients helping adult children with milestones.

Mm-Hmm. I’m gonna give them 10, 20, 30, 50 grand to buy a house. Mm-Hmm mm-Hmm. And we see them also just non-milestone. Like, Hey, here’s 10 grand. Here’s five grand at Christmas. Yes. Here’s 15,000. Just ’cause I want to give it to you.

Meghan Tait: Yes. And I would argue the majority of those decisions are made because the parents are in a position to be able to do it.

[00:02:00] Not often coming from a place of need from the kids, kids asking for

Jeff Mastronardo: it. Yes. Hey, I need help. Yes. Will you please help

Meghan Tait: me? Which we know that exists, obviously. Um, it’s just not something maybe we. Experience as much

Mike Traynor: you have. You’re in that position. Yeah. Yourself. You have a adult. Yeah.

Jeff Mastronardo: Child. And I’m completely torn.

I have no idea what I’m doing. Uh, I don’t know if I’m an enabler. I don’t know if I’m supporting. I don’t know if, I’m certainly not like being the, like, bad cop, that’s for sure. Um, and I don’t know what you’re supposed to do. Right. Like my kid lives at home. She had a job that was miserable. Quit it kind of.

Yeah. Not the way you should have. Like she should have gotten another job then quit her job. But it was so bad. And like, I’ll use the term like abusive, like I was like, you just gotta get outta that place. Yeah. And then you could find a job waiting table somewhere that’s taken a little longer than we’d like it [00:03:00] to.

Um, so I just don’t know like, what’s the cutoff? Like, when are you like, you need to be out of the house, you need to be in your own apartment. ’cause you don’t wanna force your kid into a. Financially stressful situation, but you can’t let your kid just like sit at home and eat your Eggos for the next.

Like, yes, I eat Eggos every morning. You can’t let your kid just eat your food and be comfortable. And we’ve Melissa and I have done a horrible job. What I mean is a very good job of making our home very comfortable. So like nobody wants

Mike Traynor: to leave. Yeah, I mean, I think like most things I would say it’s situational.

And, and there’s not a black-and-white answer, in my opinion. It just never would be you. And then you get down to when you have multiple adult children, one maybe needs no help and one maybe needs a lot of help. So you handle that differently. You just have to, right. Um,

Jeff Mastronardo: if your [00:04:00] kids, if your kid’s working, this is, this is the way I, how I, if your kid’s working and they’re a productive member of society, you have way more leeway.

With me, like, yeah, let’s stay here until you have enough, and your budget and expense ratio is enough where you can get out on your own and, and not have to like really struggle too much. Now I’ll just pull, pull a number like that. I’ll pull a number outta the, outta the air. Like that can’t be till you’re 30 and like 28 is probably when I start like.

Scratching my head like, all right, when the heck are you gonna get outta here?

Meghan Tait: What if she wants to buy a house in New York? Like, what if that’s her goal? I mean, twenty-eight, she’s not gonna be able to do

Jeff Mastronardo: that. Then you have to save up here until you’re twenty-eight. Go get yourself an apartment in New York or in Hoboken, or right, wherever.

And then it’s [00:05:00] just gonna take you a little longer to save up because now you have to like. You have the expense of an

Meghan Tait: apartment for a, they rent too. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I think the element, like I, I, I agree with you, Mike, that like, it’s very situational. I feel like it’s just so important to have the conversation and to be on the record about.

Expectations from both sides to whether or not you’re job-seeking or you are responsibly spending and saving your money. Um, you know, and, and timelines. I, I, I feel like creating them can be a little bit of a slippery slope, right? It can maybe add undue pressure, can create anxiety around an age, approaching an age that maybe isn’t.

It isn’t totally necessary. A again, I, that’s situation by situation.

Jeff Mastronardo: Uh, communication is like step one. Yeah. And we screwed that up. Like we never had the sit down. It’s so crazy that we’re having this pod now because [00:06:00] Melissa and I talked about this morning and we reached out to Kayla today and said, Hey.

Why don’t we, ’cause she’s in between jobs. She’s looking for a job. We’re like, we need to sit down this, this weekend. If, if we all can to discuss like, what’s your plan? Like how long do you want to be here in living at home? What does your budget look like? What are your goals? What are you saving up for?

What do you want your career to look like? Does that mean you have to go back to school? Do you want a career? I don’t know if you want a career and like just have that discussion. We haven’t had it. Mm-Hmm. And, and we never had it. So that was a mistake. We probably should have had that a year and a half ago.

Um, but she’s twenty-four, we’re, we’re gonna have it now. Everybody’s on the same page to have, and I think we’re all gonna feel a whole lot better after we have it. She’s gonna feel better ’cause she finally has direction. We feel better because we understand her expectations and she knows our expectations.[00:07:00]

And I think as long as you’re helping your kids make good financial decisions, that’s good.

Mike Traynor: Like I think I can, I can definitely see the helping with the down payment as becoming, as being way more of a, um, an obvious and important thing to do, given that all the other things are there. You know,

Jeff Mastronardo: the stars would have to align for me for that one.

Yeah. Yeah. Like if a kid has a house that they wanna buy and the down payment’s 50 grand and they have $5,000 saved up, I’m not helping you.

Mike Traynor: But I think part of the thing there is that the article mentions it that the price of real estate now, relatively speaking, mm-hmm. Is outrageous. So. The down payment that would’ve been required 30 years ago is it’s, it’s not even attainable,

Jeff Mastronardo: but if you haven’t shown the discipline and the financial ability to accumulate at least half of the down payment, why would I help you buy a house?

You’re probably just [00:08:00] gonna make more financial mistakes and you’re probably gonna lose the house or need more financial support from me, which I’m not gonna do. I,

Meghan Tait: I, I think that’s where conversations are important and expectations are, are required. I mean. I, I, obviously, I don’t have kids, but like when we think about that adulthood timeframe, it’s like, it’s weddings, it’s houses, it’s, you know, again, kids of their own.

And I think there are a lot of ways in which help can be used, of course. Um, but maybe. With you and your kids like identifying, you said it, the goals or the priorities of your kid and they’re gonna be different for everybody. And then I think it’s like how financially solvent are mom and dad like. Can they afford to do these things Again, we deal in a space and place where most of the time the affordability for mom and dad is not a huge concern, but that’s not [00:09:00] the norm.

I mean, the life being more expensive isn’t just impacting young adults. Yeah. Life’s more expensive for everybody. Now. Mom and dad might not be trying to buy a home or trying to have a wedding or have their own kids, so I understand that, but like. Parents deciding to help with no guardrails for themselves is like the absolute worst thing they could do for themselves and their kids.

Right?

Jeff Mastronardo: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I have a few clients where I’ve said like, you know, it’s, it’s a, it’s a single client, you know, husband or wife, predeceased. They have one child and they have more money than they need. Like, you can help your kid as much as you want. Yeah. Like you’re. You are not like filthy rich, but you’re, you’re never gonna spend all this money.

You, they’re gonna get it anyway if you want to help them. Sure. No guardrails. You’re, you’re totally fine. But I think in, in 90% of the cases, yeah, there have to be guardrails. ’cause the parents have [00:10:00] enough for themselves, but not enough for everybody else. Right. It’s interest, it’s, it’s, it’s wild how unique every situation is.

And there is no. Yeah. Okay. Here’s the rule of thumb. This is how you do it. You know, you, once your kids hit twenty-eight, you kick ’em out like it’s expensive and they don’t make a lot of money. Mm-Hmm. Uh, I, I, you know, kudos to the kid that graduates college and is immediately in an. In an apartment on their own supporting themselves.

But that’s, I don’t think that’s the norm anymore.

Mike Traynor: Yeah, I mean, I have a friend who, whose son just graduated a year ago, took a job in outta state and the job he learned, the job, he rented an apartment, spent everything he was making on that and just living. And then, you know, this particular job, I guess, has afforded him the ability to work remotely.

So he just announced he’s coming home and living at home to save the rent. While he continues to work and the parents [00:11:00] are not happy Yeah. About it at all. So, um, but I get it, like he’s not saving any money by spending, you know, $1,800 a month on a rent, wherever, wherever it is. I’m making up a number. But like he’s, he’s spending every, he’s not saving anything where he is.

And that’s a scenario where, I don’t know, I would, I would say, yeah, like a year. Two, whatever. I don’t know, maybe, but just, just bank what you can and

Jeff Mastronardo: then figure it out. There’s other options, man. You don’t have to, you don’t have to get an apartment by yourself, right? Yeah. You get an apartment with two other people, you make it affordable, but you can’t, like, I just don’t, like if your kid’s sitting on your couch, you eating Cheetos, like you need to crack them into shape to like get a job or get out.

And I, and like, I’m sorry, like that’s, if that creates financial stress for you, I’m sorry, but you just can’t like. What’s the word that people, you can’t free load. Yeah. You can’t be like a freeloader if they’re busting their butt and they’re working and it’s just expensive and [00:12:00] Yeah. That’s kind of where I’ve, this Yeah.

You help them accumulate and then figure out, okay, you wanna move out? Well, yeah. A, a 2000 apartment isn’t in your range, but I don’t want you living in a $200 a month apartment, so let’s figure out, find two of your buddies and find a, find a place, because I think that’s gonna help them grow, right.

Keeping them at home where they’re comfortable. It isn’t getting them out with roommates, that experience living with other people having to like wash the dishes. Mm-Hmm. Because your roommates are gonna give you shit if you don’t like, that’s. All growth for them.

Meghan Tait: And it, it, it affords them growth financially too.

’cause it forces a level of responsibility you hope. And obviously it could go the other way where poor habits are created, but like you hope that maybe with enough of a cushion a couple of years saved and then like a, a budget or a framework in which they can afford to [00:13:00] live that it does create maybe more sound.

Financial decision making moving forward.

Jeff Mastronardo: I mean, we’ve all done it, right? All three of us have moved out. Yeah, it sucked. It was financially stressful, at least for me. I

Meghan Tait: lived with two people I met on Craigslist. What’s Craigslist?

Jeff Mastronardo: I’m kidding. It’s tough. I’m not saying it’s not tough, but there’s ways that you can alleviate the stress.

Level a little bit and make it possible for you to move

Meghan Tait: out. Like at the end of the day, if people have parents who are willing and able to help if it’s done so responsibly and well intended.

Jeff Mastronardo: Yeah, I think and, and uh, maybe I’ll wrap with this. I think the one thing that we have to do a good job, a better job of doing, and I’ll throw my wife under the bus,

Meghan Tait: we being

Jeff Mastronardo: parents.

Parents, yeah. We have to stop looking about what we did. Like [00:14:00] Melissa always says, and this is not specifically related to like older kids, like to our younger generation, I agree with you, but she’s always like, man, like when my mom was at work and I was at home, like I started dinner and I clean that.

Like, okay, well you’re, you’re a better person, right? And you’re maybe a harder worker, but like, we can’t take what we did and and expect our children to do the same damn thing, especially when we have made their lives super comfortable.

Mike Traynor: Yeah, I think that’s a great point.

Jeff Mastronardo: Okay. All right.